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This Score Can Predict Risk of Early Colon Cancer

Medically reviewed by Carmen Pope, BPharm. Last updated on March 7, 2025.

By Dennis Thompson HealthDay Reporter

FRIDAY, March 7, 2025 — A new risk prediction model can help identify people who are likely to develop early-onset colon cancer or small non-cancerous growths on other organs, researchers say.

The model relies on four factors associated with early-onset colon cancer: a family history of colon cancer, BMI, sex and smoking. (BMI is shorthand for body mass index, an estimate of body fat based on height and weight.)

Based on those factors, doctors can estimate the risk that a person under 45 will develop colon cancer or polyps that could become cancerous, according to researchers at the Cleveland Clinic.

In that case, they can start receiving colon cancer screening at an age earlier than is now recommended.

“Currently, for individuals at average risk of developing colorectal cancer, the recommended age to start screening is 45 years old,” lead researcher Dr. Carole Macaron, a Cleveland Clinic gastroenterologist, said in a news release. “However, data show that about half of the patients diagnosed with early-onset colorectal cancer are younger than 45.”

The new model delivers a score on 12-point scale. With a score of 9 out of 12, the likelihood of having colon cancer at a younger age exceeds 14%, researchers said.

“With the score, we can determine whether a patient under 45 years old is at high risk of developing colorectal cancer,” Macaron said. “Our study shows that an adult in the 18 to 44 age group with a score 9 and above is likely to benefit from colorectal cancer screening.”

To develop the model, researchers analyzed nearly 9,500 patients 18 to 44 who had a colonoscopy at Cleveland Clinic between 2011 and 2021. The colonoscopies found either early-onset colon cancer or advanced pre-cancerous polyps in 346 patients.

Comparing cancer patients to the healthy ones, researchers developed their new risk prediction model.

“Young adults under 45 are at risk of developing colorectal cancer, but the recommended screening age is currently 45 for an average-risk individual,” Macaron said. “The prediction score helps personalize screening recommendations for patients under 45 years old.”

The new study appears in the journal Digestive Diseases and Sciences.

Sources

  • Cleveland Clinic, news release, March 3, 2025

Disclaimer: Statistical data in medical articles provide general trends and do not pertain to individuals. Individual factors can vary greatly. Always seek personalized medical advice for individual healthcare decisions.

© 2025 HealthDay. All rights reserved.

Posted March 2025

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